Key releases

5 dic 2025, 16:32:29

The United States of America

USD is weakening against GBP and showing ambiguous dynamics against EUR and JPY.

On Wednesday at 16:45 (GMT+2), the US Fed will hold its last meeting of the year, at which officials are expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, as confirmed by the latest macroeconomic data. In September, unemployment rose to 4.4%. In November, the employment report from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) showed a decline from 47.0K to –32.0K, while September retail sales fell from 0.6% to 0.2% against forecasts of 0.4%, showing signs of a cooling labor market and economy. However, if today at 17:00 (GMT+2), the core personal consumption expenditure price index for September remains at 2.9% or shows a decrease in inflationary pressure, the probability of monetary policy easing will increase from the current 87.1%, according to data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch Instrument.

Eurozone

EUR is weakening against GBP and showing ambiguous dynamics against USD and JPY.

In the third quarter, gross domestic product (GDP) accelerated from 0.1% to 0.3% QoQ, exceeding forecasts of 0.2%, and slowed from 1.5% to 1.4% YoY, confirming the stable position of European business and the lack of need for support from the European Central Bank (ECB) soon. In addition, in October, the volume of manufacturing orders in Germany reached 1.5%, exceeding the expected 0.3%. The positive dynamics were due to an increase in the transport equipment category, which includes, in particular, aircraft, ships, trains, and military equipment. Experts note that domestic orders increased by 9.9% with the support of government spending on defense projects, but foreign orders decreased by 4.0%.

United Kingdom

GBP is strengthening against USD, JPY, and EUR.

Halifax Bank Plc. released its November construction market data today: the house price index fell from 1.9% to 0.7%, the lowest since March 2024, YoY, and from 0.5% to 0.0% MoM. The agency’s experts note that the indicators are under pressure from the caution of investors seeking to postpone costly purchases due to tax indexation in the new budget. Nevertheless, next year, the indicator may accelerate amid stabilizing economic activity and further monetary policy easing by the Bank of England.

Japan

JPY is weakening against GBP and showing ambiguous dynamics against USD and EUR.

Investors are assessing household spending data: in October, the index fell to –3.5% MoM instead of the expected growth to 0.7% and to –3.0% compared to 1.1% YoY, which may contribute to easing inflationary pressures in the national economy and maintaining current interest rates by the Bank of Japan in the long term. However, the head of the regulator, Kazuo Ueda, hinted at the possibility of taking such measures at the December meeting, saying that officials would consider all the pros and cons of adjusting monetary policy.

Australia

AUD is strengthening against EUR, GBP, JPY, and USD.

On Tuesday at 05:30 (GMT+2), the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hold a monetary policy meeting: it may follow that amid steady economic growth of 2.1% in the third quarter, a strong labor market, where unemployment reached 4.3% in October, and employment at 42.2K, and growth in the trimmed consumer price index to 3.3% and the weighted average to 3.4%, the regulator may keep the interest rate at 3.60% and begin a significant adjustment of borrowing costs no earlier than the second half of next year.

Oil

The morning decline in oil prices was replaced by growth under the influence of several opposing factors: Prices continue to be pressured by expectations of a peaceful resolution to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, as traders hope for a compromise, although negotiations between US Special Representative Steve Whitcoff and both sides have not yet yielded any significant changes. Nevertheless, if successful, sanctions against the Russian energy sector, including Rosneft and Lukoil, may be partially lifted, and the supply of black gold on the market will increase.

On the other hand, analysts are counting on the US Fed to ease its monetary policy, which supports assets other than the dollar, including commodities, preventing oil prices from falling significantly.

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