XAU/USD: potential trade war between US and EU fuels price rises

19 gen 2026, 11:42:02

Current trend

The XAU/USD pair continues its steady growth within a long-term upward trend, constantly updating new historical highs.

Today, the price is testing 4687.50 (Murrey level [6/8]) against the backdrop of a significant deterioration in relations between the US and the EU: over the weekend, US President Donald Trump announced the introduction of an additional 10.0% tariff on exports from Denmark, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands and Finland, countries that actively oppose Greenland's accession to the US, from February 1. If the current policy stance continues, trade tariffs could rise to 25.0% in June. In response, the EU, within the framework of the previously developed Anti-Coercion Instrument, is preparing to introduce its own tariffs on American goods worth 93.0 billion euro, as well as a significant tightening of the general rules for access of American companies to the European market. In addition, Great Britain and Norway, which are not members of the EU, have announced the development of their own trade sanctions against the United States.

Investors fear that further escalation could significantly increase pressure on global trade and contribute to a slowdown in global economic growth, which is already fueling increased risk aversion in the market. Many experts do not rule out that in the near future, markets could collapse again to the level of April 2025, when the US administration first announced a general increase in trade tariffs. Under these conditions, the potential for significant growth in traditional safe-haven assets, primarily precious metals, remains. 

Support and resistance

The instrument is testing 4687.50 (Murrey level [6/8]), consolidation above which will ensure continued growth to the targets of 4843.75 (Murrey level [7/8]) and 0.8301 (Murrey level [8/8]). The level of 4375.00 (Murrey level [4/8]) below the center line of Bollinger Bands is seen as the key level for the "bears": its breakdown will lead to a resumption of the decline to the area of 4062.50 (Murrey level [2/8]) and 3906.25 (Murrey level [1/8]).

Technical indicators generally confirm that the uptrend will be retained: Bollinger Bands are directed upwards, MACD is increasing in the positive zone, and Stochastic is preparing to leave the overbought zone, while the price charts and MACD show signs of forming a Bearish Divergence, which does not exclude a corrective decline, the potential of which seems limited. 

Resistance levels: 4687.50, 4843.75, 5000.00.

Support levels: 4375.00, 4062.50, 3906.25.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened above 4687.50 with targets at 4843.75, 5000.00 and stop-loss at 4565.00. Implementation period: 5-7 days.

Short positions may be opened below 4375.00 with targets at 4062.50, 3906.25 and stop-loss at 4500.00.

Scenario

Timeframe	Weekly
Raccomandazioni	BUY STOP
Punto di ingresso	4687.50
Take Profit	4843.75, 5000.00
Stop Loss	4565.00
Livelli chiave	3906.25, 4062.50, 4375.00, 4687.50, 4843.75, 5000.00

Scenario alternativo

Raccomandazioni	SELL STOP
Punto di ingresso	4375.00
Take Profit	4062.50, 3906.25
Stop Loss	4500.00
Stop Loss	3906.25, 4062.50, 4375.00, 4687.50, 4843.75, 5000.00