Key releases

19 gen 2026, 16:33:47

The United States of America

USD is strengthening against JPY but weakening against EUR and GBP.

Today is a holiday in the US, so financial institutions are closed and investor activity is low. However, traders are closely monitoring the deterioration in relations between the closest economic partners — the US and the Eurozone. Over the weekend, President Donald Trump announced the introduction of an additional 10.0% tariffs on exports from Denmark, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Finland, countries that actively oppose Greenland’s accession to the US, starting February 1. If they maintain their position until June 1, the sanctions could rise to 25.0%. In response, the leaders of the bloc are preparing to initiate retaliatory tariffs worth 93.0B euro (108.0B dollars) within the previously developed Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI). They may also significantly tighten the general rules for US companies’ access to the European market. The UK and Norway, which are not members of the bloc, have announced their own restrictions against the US. Investors fear that the escalation of the conflict will put pressure on world trade and slow down the global recovery. Meanwhile, US Fed Board member Philip Jefferson noted that he is cautiously optimistic about the state of the economy, the labor market, and inflation in the coming year, and that the latest interest rate cut has brought monetary policy into neutral territory. Experts interpreted the comments as a hint that the current interest rate will remain unchanged soon.

Eurozone

EUR is strengthening against JPY and USD, but has ambiguous dynamics against GBP.

December inflation data was released today. The core consumer price index was revised from –0.5% to 0.3% MoM and from 2.4% to 2.3% YoY, while the broader indicator was revised from –0.3% to 0.2% and from 2.1% to 1.9%, respectively, falling short of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target of 2.0%. If it remains below this level, regulators may consider another interest rate cut. On Thursday, investors are expecting an emergency Eurozone summit in Brussels, where a response to the new US tariff increases will be worked out. Currently, the bloc’s leaders are choosing between imposing retaliatory tariffs worth 93.0B euro from February 6 and using the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI), which involves restricting US companies’ access to public tenders, investments, banking activities, and trade in services.

United Kingdom

GBP is strengthening against JPY and USD, but has ambiguous dynamics against EUR.

January data on the housing price index from research company Rightmove Group Ltd. was published today. It rose from –0.6% to 0.5% MoM and from –1.8% to 2.8% YoY. Experts note that, during the holidays, the real estate sector recovered due to the elimination of uncertainty associated with the publication of the new state budget. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Keir Starmer called on President Donald Trump to conduct calm negotiations to prevent a possible trade war between European countries and the US over Greenland, as well as to respect the NATO alliance and not undermine its foundations.

Japan

JPY is weakening against EUR, GBP, and USD.

The currency is being affected by poor macroeconomic data. In November, industrial production fell from 1.5% to –2.7%, and the number of core orders in mechanical engineering fell from 7.0% to –11.0% instead of the expected –5.2% MoM and from 12.5% to –6.4% compared to 4.9% YoY. Overall, the sector continues to cool, prompting Bank of Japan officials to pause the monetary tightening. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its forecast for Japan’s economic growth in 2026 from 0.6% to 0.7%.

Australia

AUD is strengthening against EUR, GBP, JPY, and USD.

Investors are assessing the inflation indicator published today by the Melbourne Institute. In December, the indicator rose from 0.3% to 1.0%, the highest since the end of 2023. The incoming statistics confirm an increase in inflationary pressure in the national economy, against which backdrop officials at the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may move to maintain the current monetary policy for a long time, and several experts admit another interest rate hike this year if the consumer price index continues its upward trend.

Oil

Oil prices are making moderate attempts to decline under pressure from the end of civil unrest in Iran, which has reduced the likelihood of US intervention in the situation, which could lead to a major military conflict in the Middle East and disrupt oil supplies from the region.

Nevertheless, investors remain cautious amid the likelihood of an escalation in the trade conflict between the EU and the US over Greenland, as the mutual imposition of heavy trade tariffs could put pressure on the global economy and significantly reduce energy demand.

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