Key releases

5 mar 2026, 15:04:01

The United States of America

USD is strengthening against its main competitors — EUR, GBP, and JPY.

Recent US economic data have reinforced expectations of a resilient labor market and mixed business activity dynamics. So, nonfarm payrolls, according to Automatic Data Processing (ADP), increased by 63.0K in February, significantly exceeding the forecast of 50.0K and January’s revised figure of 11.0K. Meanwhile, the S&P Global services PMI declined from 52.7 points to 51.7 points and is currently remaining in the “green” zone. In contrast, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) non-manufacturing index rose from 53.8 points to 56.1 points, confirming stable employment conditions and expansion in one of the US economy’s key sectors, which is supporting expectations that the US Federal Reserve may maintain the policy rate at 3.50–3.75% for an extended period. There is currently no consensus among officials regarding further monetary policy adjustments. However, most have adopted a “hawkish” tone, concerned about a return of peak inflation amid rising energy prices caused by the military escalation involving the US, Israel, and Iran. The exception is Stephen Miran, who consistently advocates the Republican administration’s stance on monetary easing. Speaking on Bloomberg TV yesterday, he stated that risks related to the Middle East conflict have not altered plans to reduce borrowing costs this year, as price pressures are expected to moderate and the labor market is remaining soft. Additionally, the official nomination of Kevin Warsh as Chair of the US Federal Reserve is noteworthy. Warsh previously argued that production growth driven by artificial intelligence (AI) technologies provides a basis for a “dovish” policy stance without additional impact on consumer price dynamics. However, confirmation may encounter delays, as North Carolina's senior senator Thom Tillis has pledged to block any White House nominee until the Department of Justice completes its investigation of the current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, citing concerns over investors’ confidence in the independence of financial authorities.

Eurozone

EUR is weakening against GBP and USD, while showing mixed performance against JPY.

January retail sales data were mixed: volumes fell by 0.1% MoM versus forecasts of 0.3%, while increasing by 2.0% YoY, above expectations of 1.7%. Overall consumer demand is remaining moderate but may come under pressure due to the prolonged military standoff between Iran and the US. ECB representatives highlighted the potential economic impact of the conflict. Vice-President Luis de Guindos, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel, and Bank of Finland Governor Olli Rehn emphasized that a prolonged conflict could intensify inflationary pressures and slow economic growth.

United Kingdom

GBP is declining against USD, strengthening against EUR, and exhibiting mixed dynamics against JPY.

February construction PMI data showed a persistent contraction: the index fell from 46.4 points to 44.5 points versus preliminary estimates of 47.0 points, marking fourteen consecutive months of negative dynamics due to project suspensions. The subindex also declined for the eighth consecutive month, from 39.3 points to 37.0 points. Investors’ attention focused on the Bank of England survey of employer wage growth expectations, which remained at 3.6%, the lowest level in four years. Management has confirmed plans to adjust staffing by 0.1% and product prices by 3.4%.

Japan

JPY is weakening against USD, while showing mixed performance against EUR and GBP.

In the absence of major domestic economic releases, price movements are driven by external factors. The Japanese Trade Union Confederation (Rengo) has announced plans to pursue an average wage increase of 5.94% this year — slightly below last year’s 6.09% but well above the Bank of Japan’s 2.0% inflation target, reinforcing the relevance of a “hawkish” monetary policy. The union’s management has also voiced concern over the escalating Middle East conflict, noting that it could drive oil prices higher and intensify inflationary pressures.

Australia

AUD is weakening against USD, EUR, and GBP, while showing mixed dynamics against JPY.

Investors’ attention is focused on the release of January foreign trade data, which proved generally weak: imports increased by 0.8% following a 1.8% decline in the previous month, while exports fell by 0.9% after rising by the same magnitude in December, indicating signs of a slowing domestic economy. However, this is unlikely to influence the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to abandon its monetary tightening policy. Most analysts expect the central bank to exercise caution this month and maintain the cash rate at its current level, although at the May meeting it can be raised by 25 basis points to 4.00%, with traders assigning an 80.0% probability to this outcome.

Oil

Oil prices are attempting to recover amid the escalation of the Middle East conflict.

According to Politico, the US military officials are now expecting the hostilities to last at least 100 days, compared with previous estimates of several weeks. This elevates the probability of a substantial increase in energy prices, given that the Strait of Hormuz is anticipated to remain closed throughout this period. So far, the rapid upward momentum has been limited by the US Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly report, which recorded increases in crude oil inventories of 3.475M barrels, distillates by 0.429M barrels, while gasoline stocks declined by 1.704M barrels. Meanwhile, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright noted that the impact of the Iran–US conflict on energy markets will likely be temporary and moderate, pledging to escort tankers through the blocked maritime route both now and in the uncertain future.

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