USD/CHF: monetary factors are the key drivers of dollar strengthening

4 giu 2026, 12:06:48

Current trend

This week, the USD/CHF pair resumed growth and is currently testing 0.7925 (Fibonacci correction 61.8%), supported by several factors, the most important of which is the monetary one.

Thus, yesterday, May data from the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) company were published in the US. Nonfarm Payrolls increased from 105.0K to 122.0K, exceeding the predicted 118.9K, confirming the stability of the labor market under crisis conditions. On Friday at 14:30 (GMT+2), investors expect the federal data. If they justify the forecasts of employment growth by 85.0K jobs and the preservation of unemployment at 4.3%, this will significantly increase the likelihood of the US Fed monetary policy tightening in the medium term, since most policymakers are already leaning towards such a scenario. Thus, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) of Dallas, Lorie Logan, stated that credit conditions are softer than necessary. She added that sustained economic growth, combined with high corporate profits, makes her fear that the regulator will have to raise interest rates by the end of the year to curb price pressure.

In addition, the White House’s intention to raise trade tariffs again contributes to the strengthening of the dollar. On Tuesday, the Office of the United States Trade Representative proposed introducing additional duties of up to 12.5% on imports from 60 countries due to their failure to ban the production of goods using forced labor. This, according to policymakers, allows them to reduce their cost compared to those produced in the US. In case of implementation, these measures will affect key partners, including the PRC, the EU, and Japan. This could cause new retaliatory measures and exert additional pressure on the global economy.

The franc is under pressure from the weakening of inflation in Switzerland. The Consumer Price Index decreased from 0.3% to 0.2% MoM and remained at 0.6% instead of the expected growth to 0.8% YoY. This, combined with the increase in Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 0.5%, confirms the optimistic statements of the Chairman of the Swiss National Bank, Martin Schlegel, about the temporary nature of the inflationary spike and increases the likelihood of maintaining the current monetary policy.

In general, fundamental factors support the positive dynamics of the USD/CHF pair in the medium term.

Support and resistance

The trading tool is close to the resistance area 0.7925–0.7934 (Fibonacci correction 61.8%, Murrey [4/8]). A consolidation above will allow it to reach the area of 0.8056 (Murrey [8/8]) and 0.8117 (Murrey [+2/8], Fibonacci correction 100.0%). However, in case of a breakdown of Bollinger bands middle line 0.7843 (Murrey [1/8]), a decline towards the targets of 0.7730 (Fibonacci correction 23.6%) and 0.7610 (Fibonacci correction 0.0%) is likely.

Technical indicators do not give a single signal. Bollinger bands are turning upwards. The MACD histogram is near the zero zone, maintaining insignificant volumes. Stochastic reached the overbought zone and may turn downwards soon.

Resistance levels: 0.7934, 0.8056, 0.8117.

Support levels: 0.7843, 0.7730, 0.7610.

Trading tips

Long positions can be considered above 0.7934 with the targets at 0.8056, 0.8117 and stop loss 0.7870. Implementation period: 5–7 days.

Short positions can be considered below 0.7843 with the targets at 0.7730, 0.7610, and stop loss 0.7890.

Scenario

Timeframe	Weekly
Raccomandazioni	BUY STOP
Punto di ingresso	0.7935
Take Profit	0.8056, 0.8117
Stop Loss	0.7870
Livelli chiave	0.7610, 0.7730, 0.7843, 0.7934, 0.8056, 0.8117

Scenario alternativo

Raccomandazioni	SELL STOP
Punto di ingresso	0.7840
Take Profit	0.7730, 0.7610
Stop Loss	0.7890
Stop Loss	0.7610, 0.7730, 0.7843, 0.7934, 0.8056, 0.8117