Key releases

4 giu 2026, 15:26:02

The United States of America

USD is weakening against its major competitors — EUR, GBP, and JPY.

Pressure on the currency was driven by reports of a ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel, which is a precondition for a broader peace agreement between the main participants in the Middle East conflict — the US and Iran. In addition, according to recent statements by White House Chief Donald Trump, the authorities of the Islamic Republic have agreed to halt the development of its nuclear programme, which clearly strengthens investors’ expectations of a near-term stabilisation in the region, even though limited hostilities are still ongoing. It is worth noting that market participants are likely to refocus in the near term on monetary factors, which could trigger a resumption of upward momentum in the US dollar. Previously, the May report, published by Automatic Data Processing (ADP) and based on a survey of approximately 400.0K business sources, came in positive: employment rose from 105.0K to 122.0K, exceeding the forecast of 118.0K, confirming resilience in the labour market amid the current crisis. Tomorrow, official US employment and unemployment data will be released, and if they also prove strong (employment increasing by 85.0K and the unemployment rate stabilising around 4.3%), a rise in the US Federal Reserve’s cost of borrowing in the medium term will become a highly likely scenario. In this context, recent comments by Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan are notable, as she suggested that monetary policy may be somewhat “more accommodative” than necessary, adding that sustained economic growth combined with strong corporate profits raises concerns, and that the regulator may need to raise interest rates by the end of the year to contain price pressures.

Eurozone

EUR is strengthening against its main counterparts — JPY, USD, and GBP.

Today, April retail sales data in the eurozone were released and came in mixed: it declined by 0.4% MoM, more than expected (–0.3%), while slowed from 2.1% to 1.0% YoY versus 0.3%. Overall, European consumers are reducing spending amid economic uncertainty and deteriorating financial conditions. Tomorrow at 11:00 (GMT+2), market participants will focus on Q1 GDP data, which is expected to show a moderation from 0.2% to 0.1% QoQ, and from 1.2% to 0.8% YoY, exerting pressure on the European currency’s position.

The United Kingdom

GBP is strengthening against EUR, while strengthening against USD and JPY.

Today, May construction sector business activity data were released: the index declined from 39.7 points to 38.2 points, compared with preliminary estimates of 40.4 points. Overall, the pace of deterioration has been the sharpest in six years, as economic uncertainty and accelerating inflation have led to a significant contraction in new work. The steepest decline is recorded in the residential segment, while commercial construction volumes remain broadly stable. Management reports a substantial increase in production costs and ongoing supply chain disruptions. In addition, companies have been reducing headcount for 17 consecutive months.

Japan

JPY is strengthening against USD, while weakening against EUR and GBP.

In the absence of significant economic releases, price dynamics are driven by external factors. It is worth noting a Reuters report, which, citing its own sources, claims that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates this month, as higher energy prices amid an “energy shock” triggered by the Middle East conflict are significantly increasing price pressures. Traders currently assign an 80.0% probability to such a move. It should be recalled that, in recent remarks, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that policymakers need to thoroughly assess the implications of tightening monetary conditions if inflation risks become a higher priority than the slowdown in economic activity.

Australia

AUD is strengthening against USD, weakening against GBP and EUR, and showing mixed dynamics against JPY.

Market participants are focusing on April foreign trade data: exports increased by 7.2% following a revised decline of –2.5% in the previous month, while imports rose from 12.2% to 0.8%, allowing the trade surplus to widen to 1.791B Australian dollars amid higher shipments of coal and iron ore to foreign consumers, whereas imports were primarily dominated by refined fuels. It is also worth noting recent comments from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock, who stated that the regulator is closely monitoring economic conditions to assess the impact of tighter monetary settings and the Middle East crisis. She also acknowledged emerging signs that higher fuel costs may have been passed through into the prices of goods and services, including new housing, which is likely to contribute to the persistence of elevated inflation expectations.

Oil

Oil prices are declining following reports of a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. However, despite diplomatic progress, the situation in the Middle East remains highly tense: US and Iranian armed forces continue to exchange strikes on critical infrastructure, while the Strait of Hormuz, through which, prior to the escalation, up to 20.0% of global oil and gas volumes were transported, remains blocked.

It is also worth noting the release of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly petroleum inventory report, which showed a drawdown of 7.974M barrels versus expectations of a –2.900M barrel decline. At the same time, gasoline and distillate stocks increased by 3.364M barrels and 1.502M barrels, respectively.

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